11:01 Aug. 31, 2016
Russian massive military drills on Ukrainian borders give Putin the opportunity to attack, which will be impossible after a month
Russian journalist and military expert Pavel Felgengauer in his text for the online-media "Apostrophe" explained why the full-scale Russian military attack on Ukraine may start in the near future.
The author of the article states that on Saturday August 27th, crews of aerospace defence forces of the Russian Western and Central military districts started the relocation of aviation equipment to operational airfields in the Southern Military district to participate in a sudden check of combat readiness of troops. This was reported by the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation and was reasoned by involvement in the large-scale military exercises near the border with Ukraine. The number of Russian troops involved in a ‘sudden inspection of combat readiness' is about 100 thousand troops. According to the Russian military expert Pavel Felgengauer, military preparations logically say that a large-scale conflict with Ukraine may start within the next few weeks.
The author explains further: Russian troops are on 'full alert' and are moving towards the border of Ukrainehaving already deployed a large amount of combat weapons costing Russia a sizable amount of money to maintain.
"Sure, it may be just saber-rattling, but it is very clear that we should expect a fully-fledged armed conflict, logically begining in the next few weeks. If it didn't start the whole procedure makes no sense because there is no reasonable explanation why this was organized in the first place, there are serious amounts of forces in place already – with real bombs, missiles, torpedoes," – Felgengauer states.
At this given moment in time, Russia has trained reservists in significant numbers, so there is no need in mobilization. Without it Kremlin is able to raise more than 100 thousand troops.
New or restored Russian military bases on Ukrainian border (Map by Free Beacon)
So-called "separatist" forces in Donbas are already lead by Russian generals, having logistic support from the Southern Military District of Russian armed forces which in fact belong to them, states the expert. They themselves (seperatist forces) are worth very little and are unable to crack the Ukrainian defense – only to starting the fight.
Based on given data the expert calls he current situation "a very dangerous situation".
"But will there be a war – we'll see, there is very little time left for guess work… with the given situation, Russia is trying to achieve a strategic and tactical surprise. And if she does not start now – then it will be too late. One would need to turn off full-scale operations in October due to the rains that start and of the next draft of conscipts into the Russian army (it would mean the demobilization of current wave of conscripts and having to train new ones - UT)." – stressed Felgengauer.
In the Interview for "Sobesednik" Felgengauer supports the possibility of a Russian attack due to the wider international situation.
"Presidential election in America, "lame duck" (US president, who will soon leave his position without the possibility of re-election – UT) Obama is not interfering and it is clear that he will not interfere in the near future. So now it's a unique situation: Europe is split with BrExit, even major new sanctions would be difficult to reconcile, not to mention the more serious (actions – UT). So the temptation for (Putin) would be to act now… they will still be under fire in Donbass region, tensions will remain, but the main (Ukraine wide - UT) war – may happen right now or we should be thinking about the following year. So... if we're lucky enough, we still can get by," – expert summarized.
Earlier Ukrainian intelligence reported about over 40,000 Russian troops amassed near Ukraine border.