New Bid for Peace in Donbas: New approach to peace in Ukraine - Stratfor

12:48 Sep. 23, 2016

New approach to peace in Ukraine - Stratfor

Pro-Russian separatists getting ready to withdraw their heavy weapons from the front line, in Aleksandrovsk town, near Luhansk, Ukraine, 3 October 2015 (Getty Images)

Fresh agreement to withdraw troops has a chance of surviving, US-based geopolitical intelligence firm says

As the cease-fire in Syria crumbles, negotiations over another area of contention between Moscow and the West — Ukraine — seem to be faring better.

At a meeting in Minsk on Wednesday, representatives from Ukraine, Russia and the Organization for Security Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) reached an agreement to withdraw troops and equipment from specific points along the line of contact in eastern Ukraine. On Thursday, Ukraine's representative in the talks announced that the disengagement would begin sometime this week. Though several cease-fire agreements have been made and broken since the fighting in eastern Ukraine began in 2014, this deal stands a much better chance of surviving.

Read also Donbas Breakthrough: Ukrainian representative discloses details of new deal

For one, it represents a marked departure from previous attempts to stop the fighting. Unlike previous cease-fires, which have applied to the entire battlefield, the new truce addresses only three areas of dispute along the line of contact: the Luganskaya, Zolotoe and Petrovskoe settlements.

Furthermore, it requires Ukrainian and separatist forces — along with their weapons and military vehicles — to withdraw 1 kilometer (0.6 miles) from the line of contact in these areas within 13 days, under the constant observation of OSCE monitors. Each of these provisions will make the new cease-fire agreement easier to enforce and sustain.

And if all goes well in the first three settlements, negotiations to implement a similar withdrawal and disengagement process in other areas of the conflict will begin. This gradual approach will facilitate the peace process, allowing contentious negotiations over strategic hotspots such as Avdiivka to take a backseat for the time being.

Read also German Foreign Minister warns there are no guarantees of progress as previous agreements failed to take hold

More than the many previous attempts at peace, the latest cease-fire deal could lay the groundwork for serious progress in the deconfliction process in eastern Ukraine. What's more, it suggests that the United States and Russia's efforts to make headway over contentious issues before President Barack Obama leaves office — and before the European Union votes again on whether to extend its sanctions on Russia — are paying off. 

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